Abstract:

This paper proposes a method of restart evaluation of large-scale sports events based on effective reproduction number. Effective reproduction number Rt of disease transmission is taken as the key factor to evaluate the safety of restart of sports events, and the safety classification is carried out.The SEIAR model of asymptomatic infectious persons and the improved Wells-Riley model of wearing masks are compared and analyzed. The former is used to initially evaluate the epidemic situation in regions, and the latter is used to evaluate the disease transmission in sports venues. Gaussian model is used to predict asymptomatic patients, and the q value（quanta production rate） of different time nodes is determined as the input of evaluation. Based on effective reproduction number, the comprehensive dynamic analysis of the six major sports events is carried out, and the restart schedule of these events is obtained. It can be seen from the evaluation that LPL E-sports is the first sports event to fully open the competition, probably in the early July, it is estimated that the Chinese Super League and CBA can arrange all spectators to wear masks in the middle of July.

Key words: COVID-19, modeling, effective reproduction number, Wells-Riley model

摘要：

提出了一种基于有效再生数的大型体育赛事重启评估的方法。将疾病传播有效再生数[Rt]作为衡量体育赛事重启安全评估的关键系数，并进行安全分级。对比分析引入无症状感染者的SEIAR模型和改进后的引入戴口罩的Wells-Riley模型，采用前者对地区的疫情进行初步评估，采用后者对体育赛事场馆的疾病传播性进行评估。采用Gaussian模型预测无症状感染者，并确定不同时间节点的[q]值（quanta产生率），作为评估的输入。基于有效再生数对六大体育赛事进行综合动态评估，得出这些赛事重启的时间表。评估可知，LPL电竞是最早全面放开比赛的体育赛事，大概在7月初；中超联赛和CBA估计在7月中旬可安排全部观众戴口罩观赛。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 建模, 有效再生数, Wells-Riley模型