Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2020, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (17): 33-40.DOI: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2006-0148

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Modeling Evaluation on Restart of Large Sports Events After COVID-19

SHENG Huafang   

  1. Division of Laboratory Medicine, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China
  • Online:2020-09-01 Published:2020-08-31



  1. 南方医科大学珠江医院 检验医学部,广州 510280


This paper proposes a method of restart evaluation of large-scale sports events based on effective reproduction number. Effective reproduction number Rt of disease transmission is taken as the key factor to evaluate the safety of restart of sports events, and the safety classification is carried out.The SEIAR model of asymptomatic infectious persons and the improved Wells-Riley model of wearing masks are compared and analyzed. The former is used to initially evaluate the epidemic situation in regions, and the latter is used to evaluate the disease transmission in sports venues. Gaussian model is used to predict asymptomatic patients, and the q value(quanta production rate) of different time nodes is determined as the input of evaluation. Based on effective reproduction number, the comprehensive dynamic analysis of the six major sports events is carried out, and the restart schedule of these events is obtained. It can be seen from the evaluation that LPL E-sports is the first sports event to fully open the competition, probably in the early July, it is estimated that the Chinese Super League and CBA can arrange all spectators to wear masks in the middle of July.

Key words: COVID-19, modeling, effective reproduction number, Wells-Riley model



关键词: 新冠疫情, 建模, 有效再生数, Wells-Riley模型