Abstract: Aiming at the problems of untimely arrival of fresh agricultural products and low purchase intention of consumers in the supply chain of agricultural products in the context of live e-commerce, a tripartite evolutionary game model is constructed for e-commerce platforms, logistics enterprises and consumers to analyse the game behaviours and evolutionary stabilisation strategies of each party. According to the two scenarios of poor timeliness and good timeliness of logistics enterprises in the market, numerical simulation is carried out by using MATLAB software to explore the key factors affecting the evolution trend of the dynamic system and the evolutionary stability strategy under different levels of anchoring efforts. It is found that: the changes of platform deposit and logistics expectation satisfaction value affect the strategy choices of logistics enterprises and consumers when logistics timeliness is poor; the anchor commission ratio and platform value-added service input are negatively correlated with the probability of the e-commerce platform choosing to operate efficiently when logistics timeliness is good; and the reduction of value-added services for consumers is conducive to the long-term development of the platform and the reduction of costs and increase of efficiency. The results of the study provide recommendations for agricultural supply chains in the context of live e-commerce operations.

Key words: direct supply chain, agricultural product transport, logistics timeliness, evolutionary game

摘要： 针对直播电商背景下农产品供应链中存在的生鲜农产品到货不及时以及消费者购买意向低等问题，对电商平台、物流企业和消费者构建三方演化博弈模型，分析各方的博弈行为和演化稳定策略。根据市场上物流企业存在的时效性较差和较好两种情形，运用MATLAB软件进行数值仿真，探究在不同主播努力水平下影响该动态系统演化趋势及演化稳定策略的关键因素。研究发现：平台押金和物流期望满意值的变化在物流时效性较差时影响物流企业和消费者的策略选择；主播佣金比率和平台增值服务投入与电商平台选择高效运营的概率在物流时效性较好时呈负相关关系；减少消费者增值服务有利于平台长期发展和降本增效。研究结果结合直播电商运营情况对农产品供应链提出建议。

关键词: 直播供应链, 农产品运输, 物流时效, 演化博弈