Abstract: According to Organizational Project Management Maturity Model（OPM3）, this paper identifies the OPM3 elements that influence the project portfolio management capability. Then, the causal relationship between OPM3 elements and project portfolio management capability is analyzed and constructed. The simulation results show that the OPM3 elements have a positive influence on the project portfolio management capability and this influence will be much more obvious as time goes by. In the OPM3 elements, “strategic planning”, “leadership”, “information analysis” have more significant impacts on project portfolio management capability.

Key words: Organizational Project Management Maturity Model（OPM3） elements, project portfolio management capability, system dynamics, modeling and simulation

摘要： 根据组织项目管理成熟度模型（OPM3），确定影响项目组合管理能力的OPM3要素，分析OPM3要素与项目组合管理能力的因果关系，构建系统动力学模型，仿真模拟OPM3要素对项目组合管理能力的影响。仿真结果表明：OPM3要素与项目组合管理能力正相关；OPM3要素对项目组合管理能力的影响在短期内并不显著；在OPM3要素中，对项目组合管理能力影响较为显著的是战略执行与规划、组织领导能力和信息分析。

关键词: OPM3要素, 项目组合管理能力, 系统动力学, 建模与仿真