Abstract: Based on the prospect theory, the supplier decision maker risk preference model is established by taking the loss of supplier shortage and the loss of supplier oversupply as the source of supplier decision maker risk perception. Then a three-level supply chain system dynamics model composed of supplier, manufacturer and distributor is constructed. By analyzing the risk preference (avoidance, pursuit, neutrality) types of supplier decision makers, the parameters of risk perception sources are adjusted, and then the impacts of supplier risk preference on supply chain inventory, backlog orders and delivery rate are analyzed. The study indicates that supplier decision-maker risk preference has a great influence on supplier initial inventory, delivery rate and backlog orders. Considering the source of risk perception, the bullwhip effect can be weakened and the backlog problem can be reduced. The simulation results show that the model has high feasibility and stability,and can provide theoretical support for the overall operation optimization of the supply chain combined with decision maker risk preferences.

Key words: risk preference, system dynamics, prospect theory, supply chain

摘要： 基于前景理论，以供应商缺货损失及供应商备货过剩损失为供应商决策者风险感知来源，建立供应商决策者风险偏好模型。接着构建由供应商、制造商、分销商构成的三级供应链系统动力学模型，通过分析供应商决策者的风险偏好（回避、追求、中立）类型，调整风险感知来源的参数，分析供应商的风险偏好对供应链库存量、积压订单量、发货率等影响程度。研究表明，供应商决策者风险偏好对供应商的期初库存量、发货率以及积压订单量有较大影响，结合对风险感知来源的考虑可以弱化牛鞭效应，减少订单积压问题。仿真实验结果表明模型具有较高的可行性与稳定性，能结合决策者风险偏好对供应链整体运作优化提供理论支持。

关键词: 风险偏好, 系统动力学, 前景理论, 供应链