Abstract: Researching transponder failure can cause a scene for the train control system to degrade, and it researches the scene of the transformation between the train control system in different grades, by using stochastic Petri net theory, in order to ensure and improve the safety of the train running environment. In the model, three factors that may result in the failure of the transponder：symbol error, transmission delay, transmission failure are carried out to analyze and model. When the scene going through downgrade, it analyzes and models the conversion level of the scene, train control equipment attempts to connect the GSM-R wireless network, the system is upgraded to CTCS-3 for the model. Finally, by using TimeNet 4.0 to measure the correctness of the model, it obtains the model in the probability distribution curve of the various scenes, analyzes the CTCS-3 degradation performance quantitatively and qualitatively.

Key words: transponder failure, stochastic Petri net, level conversion, modeling

摘要： 采用随机Petri网理论，对应答器故障可能导致列控系统降级的场景和列控系统在不同等级之间发生转换的场景进行了研究，以保证并提高列车运行环境的安全性。在模型中，对可能导致应答器故障的三种因素：码元出错、传输延时、传输失效进行了分析和建模；分析了在降级场景发生后，列控设备通过尝试连接GSM-R无线网络升级为CTCS-3级，并对等级转换的场景进行了分析和建模。最后用TimeNet4.0平台对模型的正确性进行了仿真，得出了该模型在各种场景发生的概率分布曲线，对CTCS-3降级运行进行了定量与定性分析。

关键词: 应答器故障, 随机Petri网, 等级转换, 建模