Abstract: In order to improve and ensure the safety of train operation environment, the stochastic Petri net theory on-board
equipment fault which may cause the train control system degradation scene and train control system change scene between CTCS-2 and CTCS-3 are studied. In the model, three kinds of factors may lead to the failure of on-board equipment: transmission error, handoff, connection loss causing vehicle equipment and spare vehicle equipment fault. They cause degraded scene which is modeled and analyzed;and after degradation scene, train control equipment through trying to connect to the GSM-R wireless network up to CTCS-3 level is modeled and analysed. Finally the accuracy of the model is simulated with the TimeNet4.0 platform. The results show the probability distribution curve of the model in various scenarios. The?CTCS-3 degradation performance is done quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Key words: on-board equipment?failure, stochastic Petri net, level conversion, modeling

摘要： 采用随机Petri网理论对车载故障可能导致列控系统降级的场景和列控系统在不同等级之间发生转换的场景进行了研究，以保证并提高列车运行环境的安全性。在模型中，对可能导致车载设备故障的三种因素：传输错误、越区切换、连接丢失所引发的车载设备和备用车载设备均故障所引发降级的场景，进行了建模和分析；并在降级场景发生后，列控设备通过尝试连接GSM-R无线网络升级为CTCS-3级进行了建模和分析。用TimeNet4.0平台对模型的正确性进行了仿真，得出了该模型在各种场景发生的概率分布曲线，对CTCS-3降级运行进行了定量与定性分析。

关键词: 车载设备故障, 随机Petri网, 等级转换, 建模