Abstract: Because of distorted information and poor product management often lead to uncertainty and to instability phenomena. This paper considers the case of the supply chain model using Timed Colored Petri nets and analyses the impact of various continuous inventory policies and known forecasting methods followed by supply chain participants. CPN tools are used for the design of decision-making processes and simulation results are presented to highlight the main issues arising in real systems and to provide insights for future work on modeling and simulation of supply chains.

Key words: supply chain, forecasting, inventory control, colored Petri nets

摘要： 供应链中由于信息传递过程中出现的信息膨胀引起牛鞭效应造成各种成本的急剧增长，为使目标函数费用最小，基于颜色Petri网建立了不同需求预测方法及库存策略的CPN模型。在订单数量等变量随机产生以及订货点等因素不确定的情况下，通过实验仿真数据确定了存储、订货及缺货费用与各种不确定变量的关系，从而确定了最优的库存策略。通过对比实验证明了该方法的有效性及正确性。

关键词: 供应链, 需求预测, 库存策略, 颜色Petri网