Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2022, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (10): 283-291.DOI: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2011-0305

• Engineering and Applications • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on COVID-19 Agent Model and Evaluation of Urban Epidemic Siege Measures

LI Jiangchuan, ZHANG Jianqin, YANG Mu, GONG Peng, DENG Shaocun, JIA Lipeng   

  1. 1.School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Information, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China
    2.Key Laboratory of Urban Spatial Information, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 102616, China
    3.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Online:2022-05-15 Published:2022-05-15

COVID-19智能体模型及城市疫情封控措施评价研究

李江川,张健钦,杨木,宫鹏,邓少存,贾礼朋   

  1. 1.北京建筑大学 测绘与城市空间信息学院,北京 102616
    2.自然资源部城市空间信息重点实验室,北京 102616
    3.清华大学 地球系统科学系,地球系统数值模拟教育部重点实验室,北京 100084

Abstract: After the COVID-19 epidemic has stabilized in China, the domestic epidemic situation may rebound slightly due to imported people and goods carrying the virus. The COVID-19 urban space agent model is constructed to deal with the impact of the city’s containment measures on the operation of the city after the epidemic rebounds. Combined with multi-agent simulation and small-world networks in complex network models with GIS, the key parameters of the model are calibrated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo method(MCMC). The COVID-19 urban space agent model is used to simulate the secondary epidemic in a city and analyze the degree of influence of the spatial spread and quantitative growth of the epidemic by adopting different spatial scales(community siege, district and county siege). The results show that the best time for siege is 3 to 5 days after the emergence of infected people, and the effect of community siege on reducing the spatial spread range of epidemic situation and reducing the increase of the number of infected persons is basically similar under the two modes of single point outbreak and multi-point distribution, so it is suitable for dealing with single point outbreak mode. District and county siege should be more effective. Combined with the results of the analysis, suggestions are made for the formulation of containment measures after the epidemic rebounds.

Key words: COVID-19, agent, geographic information system(GIS), small-world networks, siege measures

摘要: 国内新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情平稳后,外来输入携带病毒的人与货物可能导致国内出现疫情小幅反弹。针对各地疫情反弹后城市采取封控措施的尺度对城市运行的影响问题,结合多智能体仿真、复杂网络模型中的小世界网络与GIS技术,构建了COVID-19城市空间智能体模型,通过马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)率定了模型的关键参数。利用该模型,对某市二次疫情进行模拟,采用不同空间尺度(社区封控、区县封控)的封控措施对疫情在空间上扩散范围和数量上增长情况的影响程度进行分析。研究结果表明,出现感染者后前3~5天是封控的最佳时机。社区封控对缩小疫情空间扩散范围和降低感染者数量增幅,在单点爆发与多点散发两种模式下效果基本相似,因此适合应对单点爆发模式。区县封控应对多点散发效果更好。结合分析结果为疫情出现反弹后封控措施制定提出建议。

关键词: COVID-19, 智能体, 地理信息系统(GIS), 小世界网络, 封控措施