Abstract: As the bottlenecks part of the material support supply chain, wartime logistics center’s distribution capability and risk are the key factors for decision. Nevertheless, the complicated and uncertain service process makes it difficult to fully, accurately, intuitively analyze. The system simulation method is adapted to describe wartime military logistics. In view of the risk, queueing Petri nets is extended and used to model the technological process of logistics center. Finally, QPME tool is used to simulate the center model. Based on simulation data, the performances of logistics center are analyzed by varying the settings. The value of distribution capability and risk is calculated to make decision. The simulation results show that this method can help relieve bottlenecks and make decision, in addition to analyze the capability and risk of logistics center.

Key words: queueing Petri nets, wartime logistics, service ability, risk, decision

摘要： 战时后勤物流中心直接服务于前线部队，其“配送能力”和“敌袭风险”是配送决策的关键因素；但其服务流程繁琐，不确定性大，是典型的复杂离散事件动态系统，难以全面、准确、直观进行描述。采用系统仿真方法，依据实际作业流程，对普通排队Petri网进行扩展，构建带有风险因素的排队Petri网物流中心模型;通过仿真实验，研究不同模型参数对物流中心能力影响，发现瓶颈原因，并得出配送能力与风险评估值，综合决策。仿真结果表明，该方法在能力评估，瓶颈原因发现，风险评估和综合决策上有一定优越性。

关键词: 排队Petri网, 战时后勤物流, 服务能力, 风险, 决策