Abstract: Purchasing strategies are studied for a manufacturer by combining operational and financial hedges when prices and demand of raw materials are uncertain. A risk-averse buyer’s decision model is built based on the expected utility theory. The results show that the optimal contract quantity increases in the demand of raw materials, but is irrelevant to its volatility. The relationship between the optimal purchasing quantity and the degree of risk aversion or the volatility of spot price depends on whether the expected price or the futures price（or the ordering price） is bigger. The expected utility of the manufacturer can be improved after adopting a combined strategy.

Key words: futures contract, procurement, combined strategy, risk aversion

摘要： 在原材料价格与需求不确定下，研究制造商结合运营方式与期货合约的混合采购策略。利用期望效用理论建立了一个风险规避制造商的决策模型。研究结果表明，制造商的最优合约采购量随着原材料需求的增大而增加，但与其波动无关。最优采购量与风险规避度或现货价格波动性之间的关系取决于现货期望价格与期货价格（或预定价格）两者大小关系。采用混合策略后制造商的期望效用水平得到提高。

关键词: 期货合约, 采购, 混合策略, 风险规避