Abstract: Requirement change is a major source of software development risk. The risk of change propagation is predicted in terms of change propagation probability and change impact in this paper. A probabilistic model based on Design Structure Matrix（DSM） is established to evaluate the risk of change propagation, which supports the prediction of potential risk of change propagation for each component. The partitioning algorithm is applied to regroup the components for the purpose of eliminating unnecessary design iteration.

Key words: software requirement change, change propagation, Design Structure Matrix（DSM）, software risk management

摘要： 需求变更是软件开发的重要风险来源。针对软件开发早期阶段，以需求变更的影响传播为视角对需求变更风险进行了讨论。从变更传播概率和变更影响概率两个维度定义了变更传播风险，构建了基于设计结构矩阵DSM的变更传播风险分析模型，对组件的变更传播风险进行了估算和比较，通过模型划分讨论了变更传播的影响方式。

关键词: 软件需求变更, 变更传播, 设计结构矩阵（DSM）, 软件风险管理