Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2010, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (16): 71-73.DOI: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2010.16.020

• 研发、设计、测试 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Estimating software cost based on grey theory

ZHU Jian-dong1,2,QI Chuan-hui3,HOU Xi-ming3,WANG Jian-wen3   

  1. 1.School of Education,Huadong Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China
    2.School of Information Engineering,Nantong Agriculture College,Nantong,Jiangsu 226007,China
    3.Hebei Engineering and Technical College,Cangzhou,Hebei 061001,China
  • Received:2009-09-30 Revised:2009-11-11 Online:2010-06-01 Published:2010-06-01
  • Contact: ZHU Jian-dong



  1. 1.华东师范大学 教育技术信息系,上海 200062
    2.南通农业学院 信息工程系,江苏 南通 226007
    3.河北工程技术高等专科学校,河北 沧州 061001
  • 通讯作者: 朱建东

Abstract: It is difficult to use the current methods to make predictions.A novel method based on grey theory is proposed.The design thought,key technique and experiment are given.This method gets the effort sequence changing feature-“changing ratio” from the completed stage effort sequences,and gets the“changing ratio threshold” from historical projects by machine learning methods,then uses grey models to make predictions.The experimental results show that,compared with linear regression method,the prediction accuracy of the proposed method has been improved by 10%~50%.

摘要: 针对软件成本估算困难的问题,提出一种基于灰色理论的估算方法。给出了设计思想、关键技术以及估算的过程,并进行了实验验证。该方法主要借鉴灰色理论可以基于小样本和贫信息的特性,结合GM(1,1)和Verhulst各自的优点,利用成本序列及其变化率动态构造灰色理论模型进行软件成本估算。实验结果表明,该方法平均估算误差比线性回归方法低10%~50%。

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