Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2021, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (20): 109-118.DOI: 3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2006-0327

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Research on Propagation Mechanism of Hot Public Opinion Topics in Local Network Forums

QIAN Chenghao, HU Yanrong, LIU Hongjiu, PAN Junke   

  1. 1.School of Information Engineering, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
    2.Key Laboratory of Forestry Intelligent Monitoring and Information Technology Research of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 311300, China
  • Online:2021-10-15 Published:2021-10-21

地方性网络论坛热点舆情话题传播机制研究

潜程浩,胡彦蓉,刘洪久,潘军可   

  1. 1.浙江农林大学 信息工程学院,杭州 311300
    2.浙江省林业智能监测与信息技术研究重点实验室,杭州 311300

Abstract:

Local network forum is an important platform for information propagation of hot public opinion topics on the Internet. Research on its propagation mechanism is conducive to the control of online public opinion. But, the existing research on information propagation mechanism is based on the “forwarding” behavior of information, which cannot be applied to the research on the information propagation mechanism in network forums. To solve this problem, firstly, through the comparative analysis of data between ordinary large-scale forums and local forums, three characteristics of information propagation mechanism of local forums are obtained. After that, according to the characteristics of positive correlation between information propagation and post response volume in the forum, a UBIR (Unknow-Browser-Infected-Removed) model is built up by adding a new browser node and introducing an interest index function [(P(m))] based on the SIR model. Finally, according to the three characteristics of local forum information propagation, the model parameters are modified. Using the model to carry on a simulation experiment, it carries on the research to the hot public opinion topic propagation mechanism in local network forums. The results show that the model can fit the actual data well and describe the propagation mechanism of hot public opinion topics in local network forums.

Key words: information propagation, local network forums, propagation model, public opinion topic, epidemic dynamics

摘要:

地方性网络论坛是网络热点舆情话题信息传播的一个重要平台。对其传播机制的研究有助于对网络舆情进行管控。但是,现有的信息传播机制的研究都是基于对信息的“转发”行为进行的,无法适用于网络论坛中信息传播机制的研究。针对这一问题,通过普通的大型论坛和地方性论坛进行数据对比分析,得到了地方性论坛信息传播机制的三个特点。根据论坛中信息传播与帖子回复量呈正相关的特点,在SIR模型的基础上,加入新的浏览者(Browser)节点,引入兴趣指数函数[P(m)],建立了UBIR(Unknow-Browser-Infected-Removed)模型。根据地方性论坛信息传播的三个特点,对模型的参数进行修改。使用该模型进行仿真实验,对地方性网络论坛中热点舆情话题的传播机制进行了研究。结果表明,该模型能够较好地拟合实际数据并描述地方性网络论坛的热点舆情话题传播机制。

关键词: 信息传播, 地方性网络论坛, 传播模型, 舆情话题, 传染病动力学