Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2015, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (16): 63-69.
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WANG Yongwei1,2, LIU Yunan1,2, ZHAO Rongcai1, CHANG Dexian1,2, QIU Wei1,2
Online:
Published:
汪永伟1,2,刘育楠1,2,赵荣彩1,常德显1,2,邱 卫1,2
Abstract: According to the problem of multi-model combination in situation forecast, a situation combination forecast model based on evidence theory optimization is proposed. The sub-model is trained to get the performance evaluation and the weight assignment. The weights assignment results of multi-index are fused and refined based on evidence theory. Multi-indexes weight is adjusted based on the confidence and evidence theory after situation forecast circle is finished, optimizing the evaluation ability of multi-indexes. Experiments results in Matlab show that the new model can dynamic adjust the weights in combination model, and it can get better forecast accuracy than typical forecast models.
Key words: evidence theory, combination forecast, optimization, situation
摘要: 针对态势预测的多模型组合问题,提出了一种基于证据理论优化的态势组合预测模型。该模型首先对预测子模型进行训练,获得预测子模型的性能评价与指标权重分配;基于证据理论对多指标的权重分配结果进行融合,提高权重分配的精度;在预测完成后,基于指标可信度和证据理论对指标权重进行调整,优化多指标的评价能力。Matlab实验仿真结果表明,该模型能够依据态势曲线的变化动态优化组合权重,其预测精度优于典型预测模型。
关键词: 证据理论, 组合预测, 优化, 态势
WANG Yongwei1,2, LIU Yunan1,2, ZHAO Rongcai1, CHANG Dexian1,2, QIU Wei1,2. Situation forecast model based on evidence theory optimization[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2015, 51(16): 63-69.
汪永伟1,2,刘育楠1,2,赵荣彩1,常德显1,2,邱 卫1,2. 基于证据理论优化的态势预测模型[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2015, 51(16): 63-69.
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http://cea.ceaj.org/EN/Y2015/V51/I16/63