Abstract: As an example which reflects objective law of enterprise management by using modern IT technology, Enterprise Resources Planning（ERP） has become a basic tool for business supervisors at all levels. With continuous development of business informationize wave, it has been adpoted by many enterprises. However the high failure rate of ERP system implementation has puzzled the academic and industrial for a long time. The reason of ERP failure is summarized by using causal analysis chart method and the ERP invalidation factor is researched by the fault tree, the causal and logic connection, the failure mode and root causes between it and all factors are finded. To get the method to ensure ERP’s successful implemention, the research based on Monte Carlo simulation and ABC analysis, detects the key fator and invalidation module, improves major issue, reduces probability of invalidation simulation, tests effectiveness and feasibility of the method. It affords a new idea of research and resolution in ERP implemention and other management problem.

Key words: Enterprise Resources Planning（ERP）, causal analysis chart, fault tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

摘要： ERP作为运用现代IT技术反映企业管理客观规律的范例已成为企业各级各类管理者的基本工具，随着企业信息化浪潮的不断深入，已被众多企业组织所采用，但ERP实施的高失败率是长期困扰学术界和实业界的热点问题。通过对相关学者ERP失效研究成果的分析，运用因果分析图法系统整理出企业ERP失败的原因，并通过故障树分析法对ERP失效因素进行研究，找出其与各因素之间的因果关系和逻辑关系及失效模式和根本原因，在此基础上基于等概率底事件的蒙特卡罗仿真和ABC分析法诊断出ERP失效的关键因素和关键失效模式，得出确保ERP成功实施的路径，并通过关键底事件改善，降低其失效概率的仿真，验证该方法的有效性和可行性，为企业成功实施ERP其他管理问题的研究与解决提供一个新的思路。

关键词: 企业资源计划（ERP）, 因果分析图法, 故障树分析法, 蒙特卡罗仿真