Abstract: The rapid development of logistics services has been integrated into people’s production and life, and the delays and stagnations caused by sudden risks will seriously affect the efficiency of transportation and cause various economic and property losses. Therefore, based on the consideration of internal and external factors of logistics risk, this paper defines the fluctuation of supply and demand caused by market price changes as a risk factor in logistics services, and quantitatively analyzes the impact of price elasticity coefficient and initial supply price on fluctuations. On the basis of this analysis, a diffusion model of risk factors based on the infectious disease model SIR in the complex network is constructed from the perspective of the logistics network, and the diffusion mechanism is improved by using the node topology weight and the fluctuation of supply and demand. By taking different parameters in the artificial network and the real network to simulate the diffusion process of risk factors, the results of risk diffusion under different price elasticity coefficients and initial prices is discussed, and verifies the rationality and reliability of the model in the real logistics network.

Key words: complex network, logistics network, propagation mode, risk factor

摘要： 快速发展的物流服务已经融入了人们的生产、生活中，而由于突发的风险所导致的延误、停滞等问题会严重影响运输效率，造成各类经济财产损失。因此基于物流风险内部和外部因素的考虑优化了Stackelberg模型，将市场价格变化造成的供需波动界定为物流服务中的风险因子，并定量分析了价格弹性系数和初始供货价格对于波动的影响。在此分析的基础上，基于复杂网络中的传染病模型SIR，以物流网络的角度构建了风险因子的扩散模型，利用节点拓扑权重和供需波动改进了扩散的机制。通过在人工网络和真实网络中取不同参数模拟风险因子的扩散过程，讨论了在不同价格弹性系数和初始价格下风险的扩散结果，分析了模型的性能，并在真实物流网络中验证了模型的合理性和可靠性。

关键词: 复杂网络, 物流网络, 传播模型, 风险因子