Abstract: Crowd gathering places often have greater safety hazards. When an emergency occurs, crowd stampeding accidents are prone to occur at the exit of public places. Aiming at this phenomenon, a stampeding model is designed. First, the fall of pedestrians during the stampeding process is divided into three types：fell into a coma, pushed to the ground, and tripped by a pedestrian; on this basis, the rules for determining a pedestrian fall and the conditions for a pedestrian to stand again after a fall are set. The rules for determining pedestrian falls incorporate an improved social force model. The improved social force model considers the impact of falling pedestrians on standing pedestrians. During the simulation process, several factors affecting crowd trampling are analyzed, including exit width, average pedestrian speed, friction coefficient of playground plastic runway, psychological effect coefficient, and angle of knock down obstruction. The simulation results show that the smaller the exit width, the faster the average speed of pedestrians, and the smaller the friction coefficient of the playground’s plastic track, the more likely it is for stampeding events to occur. After the psychological effect coefficient and the angle of knock down obstruction exceed a certain threshold, the stampeding phenomenon will be significantly reduced.

Key words: crowd stampeding, social force, evacuation exit

摘要： 人群聚集场所往往存在着较大的安全隐患，当紧急事件发生时，公共场所出口处易发生踩踏事故。针对该现象，设计了一种行人踩踏模型：将行人在踩踏过程中的跌倒情况分为三种，昏迷倒地、推挤倒地、被行人绊倒；在此基础上，设置了行人跌倒的判定规则和行人跌倒后重新站立的条件。行人跌倒的判定规则融合了改进后的社会力模型。改进的社会力模型考虑了跌倒行人对站立行人的影响。仿真过程中对影响人群踩踏的若干因素进行了分析，包括出口宽度、行人平均运动速率、操场塑胶跑道的摩擦系数、心理作用系数，撞击阻碍角度等。仿真结果显示，出口宽度越小，行人平均速率越快，操场塑胶跑道的摩擦力系数越小，越容易发生踩踏事件。心理作用系数和撞击阻碍角度超过一定阈值后，踩踏现象会显著减弱。

关键词: 人群踩踏, 社会力, 疏散出口