Abstract:

From the perspective of trust, this paper creates an opinion evolution model integrating the internal and external factors, which involves trust among members, leadership trust and media trust. The experimental results of simulation show that the higher the mutual trust level of the community members and the higher the degree of members’ openness, the faster the community view evolves to a stable state. It takes a long time for opinion leaders in the community to play their full role. Maintaining a high level of trust and more social contacts with members will help leaders guide community views closer to those of leaders. The degree of trust of community members in the media will affect the effectiveness of media intervention, and the reverse phenomenon will become more apparent as the degree of intervention increases. Members’ positive impressions of the media will help community views closer to those of the media.

Key words: community trust, opinion evolution, small world network, media intervention

摘要：

从信任的角度出发，综合社区内外部因素构建了涉及成员间信任、领袖信任、媒体信任三方面的集成观点演化模型。通过仿真实验模拟社区环境，结果表明：社区内成员互信程度越高，成员观点开放程度越高，则社区观点演化至稳定态的速度越快。社区中意见领袖的作用需要通过长期作用才能突显，维持高程度的领袖信任以及较多的社交联系将有助于领袖引导社区观点向领袖观点靠近。社区成员对媒体的信任程度会影响媒体干预的效果，随着干预程度的增加逆反现象也会更加明显。成员对媒体持正面的印象将有助于社区观点向媒体观点靠近。

关键词: 社区信任, 观点演化, 小世界网络, 媒体干预