Abstract:

The subway station is a typical place with dense crowd. When an emergency occurs, the chaos caused by crowd panic is likely to lead to stampede and other serious accidents. In this paper, a personalized P-SIR emotion contagion model is established to simulate crowd panic dynamics. Then situations of no intervention, administrator intervention and device intervention are set up for computational simulation experiments. Research results show that, in the absence of intervention, the distance from the exit to the panic individual has a great influence on the number of panic infected individuals. When the administrator intervenes in the panic crowd, its position has a great impact on the intervention effects. When the equipment is used for intervention, the intervention effect is related to the individual’s own personality. The research results can provide important theoretical support for crowd control in emergencies.

Key words: panic, P-SIR emotion contagion, intervention strategy

摘要：

地铁站是典型的人员密集场所，突发事件时人群因恐慌而导致的混乱极易引发踩踏等严重事故。建立个性化的P-SIR情绪感染模型，模拟人群恐慌行为的演化过程，设置无干预、管理员干预以及利用设备干预情境进行计算仿真实验。研究发现，在无干预条件下，初始恐慌个体离出口的距离对情绪感染人数影响较大；管理员干预时，其位置对干预效果影响较大；利用设备干预时，干预效果与个体自身性格有关。研究结果能为突发事件时的人群管控提供重要的理论支持。

关键词: 恐慌情绪, P-SIR情绪感染, 干预策略