Abstract: Evaluating the software project to be accepted by the contractor can effectively improve the project success and contractor’s outsourcing performance. This paper constructs the evaluation index system of a software project from the perspective of contractors, which includes four indicators：Project’s characteristics, enterprise interior ability, customer status and the contractor network capability. In order to solve the problem that some indicators have the characteristics of uncertainty and unknown information, evaluation model of software project is proposed based on Evidential Reasoning（ER）. Finally, the validation of model is verified through a case study. The result shows that the model is effective to solve the synthesis problem of fuzzy and uncertain information, which overcomes the subjectivity of evaluation, and can provide the basis for software contractor selection software project.

Key words: software outsourcing project, evidence reasoning, evaluation, contractor’s perspective

摘要： 软件承包商对拟承接的软件项目进行评估可以有效地提高项目的成功率和外包绩效。从承包商视角构建了四维度的软件项目的评价指标体系，包括项目特征、内部能力、客户状况和网络能力。为解决指标体系中部分指标存在不确定性和未知信息的问题，提出了基于证据推理的软件项目评价模型。最后通过案例对模型进行了验证，结果表明模型有效解决了模糊和不确定信息的合成问题和评价的主观性，可为软件承包商选择软件项目提供决策依据。

关键词: 软件外包项目, 证据推理, 评价, 承包商视角