Abstract: With respect to the problem of the emergency scenario changing dynamically, a method of dynamic emergency decision based on case-based reasoning is proposed. The preliminary emergency alternative is generated according to the initial emergency information. The next moment scenario is predicted through considering the variation tendency of the scenario attribute and the prediction of experts. Furthermore, the most similar scenario with the next moment scenario is extracted by using the similarity computation results between the predicted scenario and the historical scenario, and the alternative of dynamic emergency decision is provided through the comparison of the similarity degree of scenario. An example is given to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

Key words: case-based reasoning, similarity degree, dynamic emergency decision-making, scenario, emergency alternative

摘要： 针对突发事件中情景动态变化的问题，提出了一种基于案例推理的动态应急决策方法。根据初期获取的应急信息检索情景库，生成初步应急方案；通过综合考虑情景属性的变化趋势和专家的预测来生成下一时刻的情景；在该基础上，利用预测情景与历史情景的相似度测算结果来选择与下一时刻预测情景最相似的情景，并通过情景相似度比较进行方案选择，给出应急决策方案的动态调整方法；通过算例说明了该方法的有效性和可行性。

关键词: 案例推理, 相似度, 动态应急决策, 情景, 应急方案