Abstract: In order to improve the elaborate management level of grid security check, it requires to study fundamental bus load forecasting. This text mainly states the overall work process of security check, and the process of elaborate bus load forecasting. It takes elaborate bus classification as basis, employs differential evolution simulated annealing model, overcomes the shortcoming that traditional clustering model often turns into local convergence. Meanwhile, it avoids abnormal data with simple safe check methods. And with elaborate correction based on area load forecasting correction method, it reduces the roughness of the first forecasting, and adopts a kind of adaptive probability weight combination forecast model, which greatly improves the accuracy of forecasting. Many experimental results show that the forecasting level of this process can finally meet the requirements of security check.

Key words: bus load forecasting, elaboration, security constrained, bus classification, area load forecasting correction method, probability combination model

摘要： 为了提高电网安全校核的精益化管理水平，从基础性的母线负荷预测精细化研究入手。阐述了安全校核工作流程和精细化母线负荷预测流程。以精细化的母线分类为基础，采用差分演化模拟退火模型，克服了传统聚类模型易陷入局部收敛的缺点。以切合安全校核的简便化方法规避坏数据。通过地区负荷预测修正法为主的精细化修正，减小初次预测的粗糙度，采用一种自适应性概率权重组合预测模型，改善了预测精度不稳定的状况。实验结果表明，该流程的预测水平满足安全校核的要求。

关键词: 母线负荷预测, 精细化, 安全校核, 母线分类, 地区负荷预测修正法, 概率组合预测