Abstract: The regression principle of Support Vector Machines（SVM） based on the statistic learning theory is introduced.To solve the problem of few training samples in modeling the prediction for highway traveling passenger volume，the method of modeling the highway traveling passenger volume based on the Support Vector machine Regression（SVR） model is presented.This algorithm is investigated to select the parameters of SVR model.A simulation example is taken to demonstrate correctness and effectiveness of the proposed approach.The result shows that the model and algorithm proposed possess convenience，objectivity and can get higher prediction precision than that of BP neural network.

Key words: Support Vector Machines（SVM）, highway traveling passenger volume, neural network, prediction

摘要： 介绍了基于统计学习理论的支持向量机回归原理，为解决公路旅游客流量预测建模中的小样本问题，实现对公路旅游客流量的快速准确预测，提出了基于支持向量机回归模型的公路旅游客流量预测方法，给出了参数优化选取算法。仿真实验表明，该方法具有比神经网络等方法更好的预测精度。说明支持向量回归方法用于公路旅游客流量预测是可行有效的。

关键词: 支持向量机, 公路旅游客流量, 神经网络, 预测