Abstract: Computer simulation provides an enabling way to reveal the mathematical laws in the game of Blackjack.According to the Bayes formula，it demonstrates the reasons why the dealer generally stands on soft 16.A dynamic decision strategy is proposed to minimum the risk of players.The strategy focuses on optimizing stand boundary of players，ignoring card counting，according to the different face-up card and the derived strategy decision table.Computer simulation is adopted to validate the dynamic decision strategy how to impact the advantages of dealers in blackjack game.

Key words: Bayes formula, Blackjack game, conditional probability, game strategy

摘要： 计算机仿真模拟技术的应用为揭示BlackJack博彩游戏中的数学规律提供了有力的工具。根据贝叶斯公式，给出了庄家点数大于16点即停止要牌的理论依据。针对庄家不同明牌时最终点数的概率分布，在不记牌的前提下以玩家承担风险最小为目标优化要牌界限，提出了一种基于庄家明牌的动态要牌策略。结合典型的下注方法，计算机模拟验证了该策略对庄家优势的影响。

关键词: 贝叶斯公式, Blackjack博弈, 条件概率, 博弈策略