Abstract: The cost driver of the traditional Parametric Cost Estimation（PCE） model is the technical variable，however it is difficult to collect the variables that indicate the technical advancement.Effectiveness of aircraft is introduced in the improved PCE.The effectiveness variables are taken as the cost driver instead of technical variables.The improved PCE model is a function of three new parameters including REACH，ADVANCE and REDESIGN，which are defined based on State of Art（SOA）.Considering the effect of input randomness，Monte Carlo simulation is conducted on the model.The improved modeling method is adjustable for different hierarchies，and can be applied to estimate the costs of most complex weapon systems.

摘要： 传统的成本参数估算模型是以技术变量直接作为成本驱动因子，但是提取表征其技术先进性的参量难度较大。改进的参数估算法将效能概念引入建模过程，用作战效能变量代替了技术变量作为成本驱动因子。定义并计算了系统总体技术度，并在其基础上定义设计水平、先进程度和重新设计，改进的参数模型就是这3个新参数的函数。最后考虑了输入参数随机性对估算的影响，对模型进行了Monte Carlo仿真。改进后的参数估算模型层次可调，适用于各种复杂武器系统的成本估算。