Abstract: The forecast is the base of scientific decision-making，how to choose the right forecasting method，is very important for forecasting results.This paper first briefly introduces a group of forecasting methods on popular，then uses the data of total freight in 1978-2006，and using the methods which describe to forecast and determinate the error，and finally gives various methods a simple comments.The conclusion is proved that the complicated method of forecasting is not necessarily better than the simple one once again.The paper has a certain theoretical and practical significance for the further study of combination forecasting methods and laid the foundation for further research.

Key words: forecasting methods, time-series data, total freight, comparative analysis

摘要： 预测是科学决策的基础，如何选择合适的预测方法，对于获得好的预测结果具有重要影响。就现在比较流行的一组预测方法做简单介绍后，利用中国1978年～2006年货运周转量数据，用文中介绍的方法分别做出预测和预测误差测定，并对各种方法给出简单评述，并再次验证了复杂方法预测效果并不一定比简单方法好的结论。具有一定的理论和实践意义，为进一步研究组合预测方法奠定了基础。

关键词: 预测方法, 时间序列数据, 货运周转量, 比较分析