Abstract: In order to solve the problem that vehicle route must be known in advance before theoretical calculation，a simulation model for estimating traffic information for local urban road network using Monte Carlo stochastic modeling method is founded.It can make the best of limited traffic detectors，know about the traffic performance of urban road network，and then set effective management measurements.The model shows better performance and applicability in real local network，and can provide reference for founding related traffic models for ATMS and the layout of traffic detectors.

Key words: Monte Carlo, turning behavior, traffic flow, ATMS

摘要： 为解决理论计算需要事先已知车辆行驶路径的问题，提出采用蒙特卡罗法设计局域路网交通信息估计集成仿真模型，可利用有限交通采集设备，实现全面掌握城市路网交通运行状况、快速有效制定管理措施的目的。在实际路网上的研究结果表明，其具有良好的可靠性，可为先进交通管理系统（ATMS）相关交通模型的建立和交通采集设备的布设提供依据。

关键词: 蒙特卡罗, 转弯行为, 交通量, 先进交通管理系统（ATMS）