Abstract: Aiming at the imprecision and uncertainty of risk factors, the Beyes theory is introduced into IT project risk management based on the traditional Rough set theory in this paper, then the concept and algorithm such as decision support, certainly factor, coverage factor are pointed out, and the risk decision rule mining model based on the combination of Rough set and Beyes theory is constructed. At last , an example is introduced to demonstrate the method and model above detailed.

Key words: Rule mining, IT project, Risk evaluation, Rough set, Bayes theory

摘要： 针对IT项目的风险决策过程中存在大量不确定、不完全信息等特征，本文在传统粗糙集的基础上，将贝叶斯理论引入到IT项目的风险管理中，提出了规则支持度、置信因子、覆盖因子等获取的相关算法，构建了基于粗糙集与贝叶斯理论相结合的风险规则挖掘模型，并通过实例对该模型进行了详细分析。

关键词: 规则挖掘, IT项目, 风险评估, 粗糙集, 贝叶斯理论