Abstract: In order to deeply ultimate the information imbedded in information system audit evidences and achieves pre-maintenance，a quantitative model of audit evidences for information system operation reliability prediction is developed.According to the Dempster-Shafer theory and framework of information systems audit，qualitative and quantitative audit evidences with uncertain information can be transformed into a uniform format，and then a reliability prediction model is built to forecast the reliability of the system in the future though a series of evaluating value.Finally，a generic optimal learning algorithm is provided to determine the parameters of the proposed model，and utility theory is used to further explain model’s prediction results.

摘要： 为了深度利用信息系统审计证据中蕴含的信息，并以此指导信息系统运行的事前维护，构建面向系统运行可靠性预测的审计证据定量分析模型。借助Dempster-Shafer 理论和信息系统审计框架，将获取的包含不确定信息的定性和定量审计证据转换成统一的形式，通过对若干时刻点系统运行可靠性进行评估后，利用证据推理方法预测未来某时刻系统运行的可靠程度。最后，遗传优化算法和效用理论被分别用于对预测模型中参数的确定和对预测结果的进一步解释。