Abstract: A model based on discrete fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network is derived for radiant threat rank assessment due to the uncertainty of the evidence.The continuous observation values are fuzzily classified by the membership functions，which are determined by fuzzy sets.The results are inputted into the model.The interface algorithm is modified in order to process evidences with multi-states.It is shown that the presented model can predict accurately changes of the situation in varying dynamical environment and has a good performance in terms of effective noise filtering from observations.

摘要： 针对复杂电磁环境下观测数据的不确定性，建立辐射源威胁评估的离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络模型。对连续观测值通过模糊分类函数进行模糊分类，获得连续观测值属于各个模糊集合的隶属度，结果作为离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络的输入。对动态贝叶斯网络的推理算法进行了改进，使其能处理具有多个状态的观测值。仿真结果表明，依据离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络所建立的辐射源威胁评估模型，能够准确跟踪战场态势的变化，及时发现态势的转换边界，而且在观测值出现大量错误时，仍然可以给出正确的评估结果。