Abstract: This article takes LAN/WLAN integration network as an example.Firstly，the definition of network reliability has been given based on the service performance and entropy weight double-base method has been carried on the reliable appraisal；Then a reliability forecast model has been established with one kind of improved PSO-BP fusion algorithm；Finally three experiments have been designed by the reliability appraisal data，the simulation result has indicated the superiority in the aspect of reliability forecast precision.

摘要： 以LAN/WLAN集成网络为例，首先从业务性能的角度给出了网络可靠性的定义，并基于此定义利用熵权双基法对其进行了可靠性评估；然后利用一种新的改进PSO-BP融合算法建立了可靠性预测模型，并以可靠性评估数据为样本设计了三组实验，仿真结果证明了该模型在网络可靠性预测精度方面的优越性。