Abstract: The formation and spread of negative emotions in large scale group are the fundamental reason of mass incident. In consideration of individuals in social network are of limited rationality, formation reasons, contagion rules and spread mechanisms of group emotion are analyzed and summarized, in accordance with these, a group emotional infection model is built. In order to investigate evolution of group negative emotions under different scenarios, the process of group negative emotion evolution is simulated by using multi-agent simulation platform Netlogo, the results show that the rational degree of ordinary citizens, emotional relationship between individuals, other emotions intervention, other emotions proportion, time of other emotions interventions, emotional contagion threshold and so on are all have an impact on group negative emotions. Finally, some prevention countermeasures and reasonable suggestions are given to the emotional group incidents.

Key words: emotional group incidents, social network, emotional contagion model, limited rationality, opinion leader

摘要： 大规模群体负面情绪的形成与蔓延是引发情绪主导型群体事件的根本原因。考虑在社会关系网络中的个体是有限理性的情形下，对群体情绪形成原因进行分析，归纳了群体情绪感染规则与蔓延机制，并依此构建了群体情绪感染模型，利用多主体仿真平台Netlogo对群体负面情绪的演化过程进行仿真实验，考察不同情景下群体负面情绪的演变情况，结果表明普通民众的理性程度，个体间的情感关系，意见领袖的干预、占比、干预时间、情绪感染阈值等都对群体负面情绪有影响。最后，对情绪主导型群体突发事件的预防与对策给出了合理建议。

关键词: 情绪型群体事件, 社会关系网络, 情绪感染模型, 有限理性, 意见领袖