Abstract: In order to find out whether considering the operation cost is favorable when setting the optimal price of time slots under the background of the different latest booking time, the available time slot sets of each stage are constructed through the analysis of the background. The utility function and MNL model are introduced to predict the selection probability, which changes when stages move. According to the relations between the time slot width and fixed costs and between delivery mileages and variable costs, the operation costs model is constructed. Ultimately, the optimal price strategy of time slots is constructed on the consideration of operation cost. The model is validated by the good agreement between simulation results and test data. At the same time, the significance of the change of the latest booking moments and the difference of distribution areas to the network retailers is analyzed under different order arrival rate; internet retailers can consider setting the latest booking moments of time slots later when order arrival rates is high.

Key words: internet retailing, delivery time slot, time slot pricing, discrete choice probability

摘要： 在最迟预定时刻差异化背景下，为解决求取最优时隙价格时考虑运营成本是否有利的问题，根据背景特点构建各订单到达阶段的时隙集合，引入效用函数和Logit模型预测随订单到达阶段后移而改变的时隙选择概率，根据时隙宽度与固定成本的关系以及配送里程与变动成本的联系建立时隙运营成本模型，最后建立最优时隙价格模型。通过数据仿真验证了模型有效性，同时分析了最迟预定时刻的改变和不同的配送区域在不同订单到达率下对网络零售商的意义。发现在制定时隙价格时考虑时隙运营成本能使总利润更大；应对面积大而订单到达率低的地区制定较高的时隙价格，此时的价格对订单到达率波动很敏感；网络零售商可以考虑在订单到达率高的时段为时隙设置较晚的最迟预定时刻。

关键词: 网络零售, 配送时隙, 价格策略, 离散选择概率