Abstract: In order to overcome the impact of missing data and uncertain factors on project life-cycle cost evaluation, fuzzy theory is introduced into the evaluation of project Life-Cycle Cost（LCC）. First of all, this paper establishes calculation model according to the composition of the project LCC, and then uses triangular fuzzy function to fuzzy up the variable. According to Day-Stout-Warren（DSW） algorithm to calculate the point so that the variation trend of fuzzy function can be found. Finally, the discretc data is fitted by MATLAB to the lease square curve EAC are used to evaluate the cost of different life cycle scheme. The numerical examples show that the method has a strong mathematical operation, the cost estimation interval is defined, the decision-maker ’s subjectivity is considered and the decision-making is simple and effective.

Key words: fuzzy theory, Day-Stout-Warren（DSW） algorithm, life-cycle cost, curve fitting

摘要： 为了克服数据缺失和不确定因素对项目全寿命周期成本评价的影响，将模糊理论引入到项目全寿命周期成本（LCC）的估算评价中。首先根据项目LCC的组成构建计算模型，然后利用三角模糊函数将变量模糊化，并依据Day-Stout-Warren（DSW）算法描点找到LCC模糊函数的变化趋势，最后由MATLAB将离散数据进行最小二乘曲线拟合，并采用等年值法（EAC）对不同寿命周期的成本方案进行评价选优。算例分析表明该方法有很强的数学操作性，明确了成本的估算区间，考虑了决策者的主观性并使方案的决策简单有效。

关键词: 模糊理论, DSW算法, 全寿命周期成本, 曲线拟合