关键词: 风险偏好, 系统动力学, 前景理论, 供应链

Abstract: Based on the prospect theory, the supplier decision maker risk preference model is established by taking the loss of supplier shortage and the loss of supplier oversupply as the source of supplier decision maker risk perception. Then a three-level supply chain system dynamics model composed of supplier, manufacturer and distributor is constructed. By analyzing the risk preference (avoidance, pursuit, neutrality) types of supplier decision makers, the parameters of risk perception sources are adjusted, and then the impacts of supplier risk preference on supply chain inventory, backlog orders and delivery rate are analyzed. The study indicates that supplier decision-maker risk preference has a great influence on supplier initial inventory, delivery rate and backlog orders. Considering the source of risk perception, the bullwhip effect can be weakened and the backlog problem can be reduced. The simulation results show that the model has high feasibility and stability,and can provide theoretical support for the overall operation optimization of the supply chain combined with decision maker risk preferences.

Key words: risk preference, system dynamics, prospect theory, supply chain