Abstract: International strategy game is related to national security and competition, military conflict and war, crisis control and other major national strategic issues. In the international strategy game, there are some features that are macroscopic, wholeness, foreseeability and fuzziness. There are complex correlations between related elements, relationships, rules and indicators, so the quantization simulation and modeling of the international strategy game is difficult. However, the most of international strategy game decision analysis methods focus on current strategy situations and are short of prospective analysis based on contradiction motion. It is hard to avoid the awkward position appeared in international strategy game. For above problems, a multi-source intelligence driving international strategy game decision analysis method based on extenics is proposed. In this method, nation-society structure extension model and national interest structure extension model are constructed for international strategy game. Meantime, national power model is proposed based on five domains, including political, economic, military, diplomatic and cognitive, and national interest measure model is proposed based on the relative interests of the state. The international strategy game decision analysis algorithm is designed. Using open source data for verification, the experimental results show that, the nation-society structure extension model and national interest structure extension model can effectively characterize the international strategy game situation, and accurately identify the principal game object country and key domain, which are consistent with the real situation. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed international strategy game decision analysis method.

Key words: extenics, contradiction identification, national power, national interests, game decision, international strategy

摘要： 国家战略博弈事关国家安全与竞争、军事冲突与战争、危机管控等国家重大战略问题。战略博弈具有宏观性、整体性、前瞻性以及模糊性等特点，相关要素、关系、规则、指标之间复杂关联，量化计算与模型构建是一个难题。目前大部分的战略博弈分析方法主要是针对当前的战略态势进行定性分析、静态评估，缺少针对矛盾运动的前瞻性分析和过程性评估，更缺乏有效的科技手段支撑，严重影响战略博弈的预见性、时效性、主动性和针对性。针对上述问题，提出了多源情报驱动的国家战略博弈可拓决策分析方法，构建了面向战略博弈的国家社会结构和国家利益可拓模型，采用政治、经济、军事、外交、认知五领域国家战略博弈，构建基于五元融合的实力和国家相对利益度量模型，设计国家战略博弈决策分析算法。采用开源数据进行验证，实验结果表明，可拓国家社会结构模型和可拓国家利益模型能够有效表征国家战略博弈情境，准确识别主要博弈对象和博弈的关键领域，与真实情况一致，验证了提出的国家战略博弈可拓决策分析方法是有效的。

关键词: 可拓模型, 矛盾识别, 国家实力, 国家利益, 博弈决策, 国家战略