Abstract:

Whether the application of the theory and method of multi-criteria decision making can achieve the expected economic and social benefits has gradually become the core issue in this research field. In recent years, the theory and method of decision making based on Probabilistic Language Term Set（PLTS） has attracted much attention, PLTS can not only reflect decision maker’s hesitant fuzzy language evaluation or preference to the scheme or criteria, but also reflect the probability information of each linguistic term, which is close to decision-makers’ cognitive process. It has been widely used in investment project risk assessment, pattern recognition, medical diagnosis and other fields, and has produced good application effect. The research status of PLTS is reviewed systematically from four aspects：information fusion theory, measure theory, preference relation theory and multi-criteria decision method based on PLTS, the shortcomings of existing research are analyzed. It is indicated that Probabilistic Uncertain Linguistic Term Set（PULTS） can reflect the fuzzy uncertainty of qualitative decision information more efficiently and accurately. The follow-up research in this field should focus on the core issues such as the information fusion of PULTS, the framework of measurement theory, the consensus-consensus process of preference relations, the multi-criteria group decision making method and its application research, corresponding research ideas are given to provide a feasible reference for the follow-up research in this field.

Key words: multi-criteria decision making, probabilistic linguistic term set, information fusion, consensus reaching process

摘要：

多准则决策理论与方法的应用能否达到预期的经济效益与社会效益，逐步成为该研究领域关注的核心议题。近年来，基于概率语言术语集（Probabilistic Language Term Set，PLTS）的决策理论与方法受到广泛关注，PLTS既能够反映决策者对方案或准则的犹豫模糊语言评价或比较偏好，又能体现各语言术语的概率信息，较为贴近决策者的思维认知过程，已广泛应用于投资项目风险评估、模式识别、医疗诊断等领域，产生了良好的应用效果。从PLTS的信息融合理论、测度理论、偏好关系理论、基于PLTS的多准则决策方法这四方面系统回顾PLTS的研究现状，分析现有研究存在的不足，指出采用概率不确定语言术语集（Probabilistic Uncertain Linguistic Term Set，PULTS）即能更为高效、精准地反映定性决策信息的模糊不确定性。阐述该领域后续研究应当重点关注PULTS的信息融合、测度理论框架、偏好关系的一致性-共识达成过程、多准则群决策方法及其应用研究等核心问题，并给出相应的研究思路，为该领域后续研究提供可行性借鉴。

关键词: 多准则决策, 概率语言术语集, 信息融合, 共识达成过程