Abstract: Researches on inter-domain routing system cascading failures model are important for detecting and defending cascading failures attacks. Considering the unrealistic simulation problem in existing studies caused by simplified damage factor and untruth of failure conditions, this paper proposes a double damage factors based inter-domain routing system cascading failures model after analyzing the main cause and propagation mechanism generated by inter-domain routing system cascading failures. The proposed model considers effects of both UPDATE message and traffic redistribution acting on cascading failures, systematically characterizing cascading failures process based on the mutual effect of two factors mentioned above. It designs a real data experiment to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed model. Experimental result turns out that the prediction deviation of the model reduces by 35% when compared with traditional model.

Key words: cascading failure, inter-domain routing system, traffic redistribution

摘要： 级联失效建模研究对检测和防御级联失效攻击具有重要意义。针对现有研究存在毁伤因素单一、失效条件不符合实际等问题，提出了基于双毁伤因素的域间路由系统级联失效模型。该模型综合考虑了UPDATE报文和流量重分配对级联失效过程的影响，并基于两者的相互作用关系，系统刻画了级联失效过程。实验结果表明，该模型能够较准确地模拟域间路由系统级联失效过程，验证了模型的有效性。相对于已有模型，使模型与真实数据的预测偏差降低了35%。

关键词: 级联失效, 域间路由系统, 流量重分配