Abstract: In view of the continuous changes of internal and external environment factors of supply chain system, the reliability of the supply chain system is built, the intuitionistic fuzzy set is introduced into the fuzzy Petri net model, and the model of supply chain reliability based on intuitionistic fuzzy Petri net is constructed by using intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. On the base of the change and the relationship between the kinds of fuzzy inference rules, the fuzzy inference rules of the supply chain reliability diagnosis model are divided into four types, which are obtained by the changes of the fuzzy inference rules with  prior or after trigger. At the same time, the fuzzy reasoning algorithm is put forward, and the validity of the model and the algorithm is verified by an example.

Key words: supply chain reliability, diagnosis model, intuitionistic fuzzy Petri net, fuzzy generative rules

摘要： 针对不断变化的供应链系统内外部环境因素，围绕供应链系统可靠性诊断问题，将直觉模糊集引入模糊Petri网建模，用直觉模糊数表示库所状态、变迁阈值和变迁输出置信度，构建了基于直觉模糊Petri网的供应链可靠性诊断模型。对直觉模糊产生式规则按照变迁激发前后变迁和库所之间的与或关系，将供应链可靠性诊断模型模糊推理规则划分为四种类型，得到了变迁触发前和触发后的与或直觉模糊推理规则。同时提出了相应的模糊推理算法，并通过实例验证了模型和算法的有效性，能够及时发现供应链系统故障。

关键词: 供应链可靠性, 诊断模型, 直觉模糊Petri网, 模糊产生式规则