Abstract: Accurate prediction?of tourist amount is significant for the development of the tourism industry. A combined model based on the Logistic?growth and GM-Markov model for predicting tourist amount is proposed. Tourism?theory?and pure mathematical statistical method are combined in this model. Empirical researches are simulated （using the combined model）, the results of the research indicate that the combined model is more accurate than separated one, and it’s more feasible and effective in the practice of tourism.

Key words: tourist amount, Logistic growth, GM-Markov model, combined model

摘要： 游客量的准确预测对旅游产业的开发具有重要的指导意义。提出一种基于Logistic增长曲线和GM-Markov相结合的组合模型的游客量预测方法，该模型能够同时考虑旅游学理论基础和纯数理统计方法，并进行实证仿真。仿真结果表明该组合预测的方法比单一预测方法精度更高，在旅游产业实践中更具可行性和有效性。

关键词: 游客量, 罗杰斯增长曲线, 灰色马尔可夫模型, 组合预测