Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2006, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 6-.

• 博士论坛 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis on complexity and predictability of macroscopic transportation system

FengTao Liu,GuoGuang He   

  1. 天津大学系统工程研究所
  • Received:2005-12-23 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-03-21 Published:2006-03-21
  • Contact: FengTao Liu



  1. 天津大学系统工程研究所
  • 通讯作者: 刘峰涛 刘峰涛

Abstract: It is very important to quantificationally characterize the relationship between complexity and predictability of macroscopic transportation system. The Lempel-Ziv algorithm of symbolic dynamics was introduced to measure the complexity of macroscopic transportation system. Aiming at the misapplications of this algorithm ,the general method of trial and error is put forward .The ARIMA model was applied to evaluate and predict the time series of macroscopic traffic volume. Complexity and prediction errors of 5 actual time series were calculated. Based on the comparison of the calculated results, it is assumed that complexity is negatively correlated with predictability in macroscopic transportation system.

摘要: 宏观交通运输系统复杂度与可预测性的关系需要定量描述。为测度宏观交通运输系统的复杂性,引入符号动力学的Lempel-Ziv算法。针对该算法的应用误区,提出改进的“通用试凑算法”。应用ARIMA模型,对宏观交通量时间序列进行模型估计和预测。计算5个实测时间序列的复杂度和预测误差,通过其结果比较,推论出一个假设:宏观交通运输系统的复杂度与可预测性存在负相关关系。