Optimal combination forecasting model of books publication kinds and its application

Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2008, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12): 246-248.

• 工程与应用 • Previous Articles

Optimal combination forecasting model of books publication kinds and its application

WANG Qiu－ping^1,2,LIU Su－bing¹,WANG Xiao－feng¹,ZHANG Jun¹,ZENG Tao¹

1.School of Sciences，Xi’an University of Technology，Xi’an 710054，China
2.School of Business Administration，Xi’an University of Technology，Xi’an 710054，China

Received:2007-08-07 Revised:2007-11-28 Online:2008-04-21 Published:2008-04-21
Contact: WANG Qiu－ping

图书出版量的优化组合预测模型及其应用

王秋萍^1,2,刘素兵¹,王晓峰¹,张军¹,曾涛¹

1.西安理工大学理学院，西安 710054
2.西安理工大学工商管理学院，西安 710054

通讯作者: 王秋萍

Abstract

Abstract: According to the historical data of the national books publication，we make use of GM（1，1） forecasting model and cubic exponential smoothing model to construct optimal combination model based on IOWGA （Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging） to forecast books publication kinds.We give test to combination forecasting model.The test result shows that this model is effective and suitable.The combination forecasting model based on IOWGA possesses high accuracy and is applicable to practice.The books publication kinds in four years，from 2006 to 2009，are predicted by established model.

Key words: book publication kinds, IOWGA operator, forecasting model, combination forecasting, Matlab

摘要： 以全国图书出版量的历史数据为基础，采用灰色GM（1，1）模型和三次指数平滑模型进行组合优化，建立了基于IOWGA（诱导有序几何加权平均）算子的图书出版量组合预测模型，并对组合预测模型进行了检验。检验结果表明，组合预测模型是有效的、可靠的，具有较高的预测精度，可应用于实际预测。并利用所建预测模型对2006~2009年的图书出版量进行了预测。

关键词: 图书出版量, IOWGA算子, 预测模型, 组合预测, Matlab

WANG Qiu－ping^1,2,LIU Su－bing¹,WANG Xiao－feng¹,ZHANG Jun¹,ZENG Tao¹. Optimal combination forecasting model of books publication kinds and its application[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2008, 44(12): 246-248.

王秋萍^1,2,刘素兵¹,王晓峰¹,张军¹,曾涛¹. 图书出版量的优化组合预测模型及其应用[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2008, 44(12): 246-248.

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Optimal combination forecasting model of books publication kinds and its application

图书出版量的优化组合预测模型及其应用

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