关键词: 微博, 舆情话题, 传播模型, 传染病动力学

Abstract: Microblogging has become the important communication channel of the public opinion topics, and studying the propagation mechanism of public opinion topics in microblogging will be conducive to analyze and monitor the propagation process of public opinion topics. However it is difficult for the traditional information propagation models to describe the propagation and evolution of the public opinion topics in microblogging. This paper analyzes the information interaction mode and propagation characteristics of the public opinion topics in microblogging, and then the SCIR（Susceptible Contacted Infected Removed） propagation model of public opinion topics in microblogging is built up based on SIR model. A new node state called contacted state is introduced in this model in order to describe the public opinion topic propagation mechanism. The simulation results show that the propagation model established in this paper can well describe the propagation law of public opinion topics in microblogging.

Key words: microblogging, public opinion topics, propagation model, infectious disease dynamics