关键词: 案例推理, 相似度, 动态应急决策, 情景, 应急方案

Abstract: With respect to the problem of the emergency scenario changing dynamically, a method of dynamic emergency decision based on case-based reasoning is proposed. The preliminary emergency alternative is generated according to the initial emergency information. The next moment scenario is predicted through considering the variation tendency of the scenario attribute and the prediction of experts. Furthermore, the most similar scenario with the next moment scenario is extracted by using the similarity computation results between the predicted scenario and the historical scenario, and the alternative of dynamic emergency decision is provided through the comparison of the similarity degree of scenario. An example is given to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

Key words: case-based reasoning, similarity degree, dynamic emergency decision-making, scenario, emergency alternative