关键词: 概率盒, Lucas模型, 融合, 重叠因子, 电网规划

Abstract: In the current decision-making indicator system, the correlation of indicators is often ignored which would affect the reliability and the economy of the entire grid planning. To solve the uncertainty of indexes decisions, it proposes the index correlation analysis and fusion algorithm based on the theory of the probability boxes. This paper firstly introduces the calculation of the Lucas correlation coefficient of each index. Then, by establishing the probability of box and using overlap factor, quantitative analysis can be made on the basis of making the fusion of the probability of box according to the correlating indicators. Using the underlying index of the power grid planning scheme of a provincial as an example to do an experiment, the result shows that the method is more timely and accurate to solve the problem of correlation and fusion compared with existing method.

Key words: probability boxes, Lucas model, fusion, overlap factor, power grid planning