关键词: 效率预测, 效率评价, BP神经网络, 区间预测

Abstract:

In recent years, efficiency prediction is a hot topic of research. However, with the complexity and uncertainty of the evaluation system, the point prediction performance of efficiency will gradually decrease. Based on this, a DEA-BP neural network confidence interval prediction model is proposed. Firstly, the non-archimedes infinite CCR model is constructed to evaluate the efficiency of the system. Secondly, the confidence interval prediction model of BPNN is constructed, and the point prediction is transformed into interval prediction. Finally, the interval comprehensive verification is carried out by PICP, NMPIL and CLC models. The three-stage model is applied to the tourism efficiency forecast of provinces and cities along the “Belt and Road”, and the efficiency of each province and city is classified according to the forecast results and suggestions for improvement are proposed. Because the BPNN confidence interval prediction model is difficult to confirm the best model, the results of this paper still need to be improved, but it has certain reference.

Key words: efficiency prediction, efficiency evaluation, BP neural network, interval prediction