关键词: P2P借贷, 社会网络, 违约风险, 风险预测

Abstract:

In view of the fact that financial information is incomplete or of low quality and prediction accuracy of project default risk is low in P2P lending, the paper proposes a method to predict default risk of projects considering social network. By analyzing the social network information of P2P lending platforms, the key characteristics which have risk prediction value, namely social network risk characteristics, have been excavated according to structure dimension, relationship dimension and cognitive dimension of social capital and then take as indicator variables of default risk prediction. Two prediction models of pure financial indicators and mixed indicators with social network risk characteristics are constructed based on a variety of traditional nonlinear methods. The prediction results of prediction models are examined to analyze the value of social network risk characteristics in default risk prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that there are some characteristics significantly associated with default risk of projects in social network. These characteristics have been effectively mined and then reasonably introduced into prediction model of project default risk in P2P lending, which can help improve prediction effect of project default risk, and then provide support for investment risk avoidance of investors and risk management in P2P lending market.

Key words: P2P lending, social network, default risk, risk prediction