关键词: 客流预警模型, 时间序列, 短时预测, 车站承载能力, WiFi探针

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of passenger flow security risks caused by increased passenger flow and sudden passenger flow at metro stations, a method for early warning of passenger flow at metro stations based on WiFi probe detection data is proposed. Firstly, based on the WiFi probe passenger flow data detection principle, station layout and analysis of passenger flow characteristics, the probe’s raw data is preprocessed, and then a short-term passenger flow prediction model is established based on time series. Then through the calculation of the carrying capacity of the metro station, the station passenger flow early warning indicator and the passenger flow classification early warning model are constructed. Finally, the Shanghai Metro Jiangsu Road Station is used as an example of model verification. The results show that the WiFi probe technology-based subway station passenger flow detection and prediction model is feasible and effective, and the early warning model has some reference significance for passenger flow early warning application and research.

Key words: passenger flow early warning, time series model, short-term prediction, station carrying capacity, WiFi probe