关键词: 泊松分布, 马尔可夫模型, 交通事故, 安全系数, 最大决策

Abstract:

In order to improve the navigational system of route planning with safety as the first factor, highlight the purpose of people-oriented, based on OD（Origin-Destination） route selection, and traffic accident and weather data from Guiyang, which are affecting the line risk factor, are taken into account synthetically based on the actual situation. The Poisson distribution model and Markov model are setting up to analyze the probability of traffic accident points and route probability under sunny, cloudy and rainy days as risk coefficient indexes, the optimal route is selected by using the maximum decision method according to the route safety factor. The results show that the frequency of traffic accidents is different under different weather conditions in Guiyang and the number of traffic accidents at each location obeys Poisson distribution. The first route recommended by the existing navigation software is not the optimal route, while the second route is the route with the greatest safety factor. The calculation of traffic accident probability based on Poisson distribution model and Markov model adds a humanized setting with safety factor as the first reference value to the existing navigation software, which has good social value and generalization performance.

Key words: Poisson distribution, Markov model, traffic accidents, safety factor, maximum decision